Before the war started on February 24, our primary focus in the global grains and oilseeds market was on production conditions in South America and Indonesia, where maize, soybeans and palm oil were negatively affected by dryness. The possible lower yields in these countries alone had elevated global grain and oilseed prices over the past few months.

The Russia-Ukraine war is now an additional risk, specifically to exporting activity. Ukraine suspended its exporting activity since the war started. Russia faces some restrictions to its exporting activity because of the sanctions and higher shipment insurance premiums for moving grains to various export destinations. This is a significant challenge because both countries constitute significant global grain and oilseed export volumes.

As we previously stated, in 2021, these countries together accounted for nearly 30% of global wheat exports, about 14% of global maize exports, roughly 32% of global barley exports, and almost 60% of global sunflower oil exports.

War added risk to global grains and oilseeds market | Wandile Sihlobo